China, India set to be leading
powers by 2025: US intelligence
By Arun Kumar
Nov 21 (IANS) China and India are likely to emerge atop a
multipolar international system as the US economic and political
clout declines over the next two decades, according to US
intelligence agencies projections.
only will new players - Brazil, Russia, India and China -
have a seat at the international high table, they will bring
new stakes and rules of the game, said the National Intelligence
Council analysis "Global Trends 2025- A Transformed World"
released here Thursday.
whole international system, as constructed following the Second
World War, will be revolutionised, said the report based on
a global survey of experts and trends by US intelligence analysts.
was timed to be ready for the incoming administration of US
President-elect Barack Obama, who takes office Jan 20.
the rise of no other state can equal the impact of the rise
of such populous states as China and India, other countries
with potentially high-performing economies could play increasingly
important roles on the world stage, the report said.
example Iran, Indonesia, and Turkey could do so especially
for establishing new patterns in the Muslim world.
for Russia, remaining in the top tier where it has been since
its remarkable resurgence during the late 1990s and early
part of the 21st century may be extremely difficult, it said.
the current financial crisis on Wall Street as the beginning
of a global economic rebalancing, it said the US dollar's
role as the major world currency will weaken to the point
where it becomes a "first among equals."
world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood
of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water,
and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and
terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons, the
we believe chances are good that China and India will continue
to rise, their ascent is not guaranteed and will require overcoming
high economic and social hurdles."
of this, both countries are likely to remain inwardly focused
and per capita wealth will lag substantially behind Western
economies throughout the period to 2025 and beyond,"
in these emerging economic powerhouses are likely to feel
still poor in relation to Westerners even though their collective
GDP increasingly will outdistance those of individual Western
states, the report said.
countries are poised to have more impact on the world over
the next 15-20 years than China, it said, it said.
current trends persist, by 2025 China will have the world's
second largest economy and will be a leading military power.
It could also be the largest importer of natural resources
and an even greater polluter than it is now."
to the large populations and expansive landmasses of the new
powers like India and China, another constellation of powerhouses
is unlikely to erupt on the world scene over the next decade
or two, the report said.
up-and coming developing states could account for an increasing
proportion of the world's economic growth by 2025.
international system, will be almost unrecognizable by 2025,
owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy,
an historic transfer of wealth from West to East, and the
growing influence of non-state actors," the report said.
the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful
actor, the United States' relative strength-even in the military
realm, will decline and US leverage will become more strained,"
rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments
and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot
rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial
expansion and military rivalries," the report said.