India seeking polar role
in new world order: US study
By Arun Kumar
Nov 21 (IANS) Striving for a multi-polar international system,
India will seek to emerge as one of the poles while serving
as a political and cultural bridge between a rising China
and the US, according to a US intelligence study.
growing international confidence, derived primarily from its
economic growth and its successful democratic record, now
drives New Delhi toward partnerships with many countries,"
said the National Intelligence Council's "Global Trends
2025 - A Transformed World" report released here Thursday.
these partnerships are aimed at maximising India's autonomy,
not at aligning India with any country or international coalition,
added the report based on a global survey of experts and trends
by US intelligence analysts.
to be ready for the administration of US President-elect Barack
Obama, who takes office Jan 20, the report said: "Indian
leaders do not see Washington as a military or economic patron
and now believe the international situation has made such
a benefactor unnecessary."
Delhi will, however, pursue the benefits of favourable US
ties, partly, too, as a hedge against any development of hostile
ties with China.
policymakers are convinced that US capital, technology, and
goodwill are essential to India's continued rise as a global
power," the report said.
US will remain one of India's largest export destinations,
the key to international financial institutions such as the
World Bank and foreign commercial lending, and the largest
source of remittances.
Indian diaspora, composed largely of highly skilled professionalism,
will remain a key element in deepening US-Indian ties,"
it said. "The Indian market for US goods will grow substantially
as New Delhi reduces restrictions on trade and investment."
military also will be eager to benefit from expanded defence
ties with Washington, the report said. "Indian leaders,
however, will probably avoid ties that could resemble an alliance
home, with India remaining confident that it can contain the
Kashmiri separatist movement, regional and ethnic insurgencies
are unlikely to threaten India's unity, but the growing reach
of the Maoist movement would lead to heightened violence and
instability in several parts of the country, it said.
and ethnic insurgencies that have plagued India since independence
are likely to persist, but they will not threaten India's
unity We assess New Delhi will remain confident that it can
contain the Kashmiri separatist movement.
India is likely to experience heightened violence and instability
in several parts of the country because of the growing reach
of the Maoist Naxalite movementl," the report.
the economic front, it predicted that India probably will
continue to enjoy relatively rapid economic growth.
India faces lingering deficiencies in its domestic infrastructure,
skilled labour, and energy production, we expect the nation's
rapidly expanding middle class, youthful population, reduced
reliance on agriculture, and high domestic savings and investment
rates to propel continued economic growth.
impressive economic growth over the past 15 years has reduced
the number of people living in absolute poverty, but the growing
gap between rich and poor will become a more important political
general direction of India's economic policymaking is unlikely
to be reversed, but the pace and scale of reform will fluctuate,"
the report said.
believe Indians will remain strongly committed to democracy,
but the polity could become more fragmented and fractious,
with national power being shared across successive political
elections are likely to be multi-sided affairs yielding awkward
coalitions with unclear mandates," it added.