India, China, US cooperation
seen on sea lane security
By Arun Kumar
Nov 22 (IANS) In the multi-polar system emerging with the
rise of China and India, a US intelligence expert not only
sees new rivalries but also a lot of opportunities for cooperation
on sea lane security.
US will still remain still the premier maritime power in 2025.
And in terms of protecting the vitals, the sea lanes, the
US certainly will be the only one capable," Mathew Burrows,
the National Intelligence Council (NIC) counsellor, said Friday.
caveat here is that the Chinese Navy, potentially India, will
begin to be developing those capabilities," said the
principal author of "Global Trends 2025 - A Transformed
World", a study prepared by the apex body of 16 US intelligence
report not only mentions rivalry but also talks about the
potential for cooperation, taking a look at "the energy
supplies and the long maritime routes that tankers and others
have to take", said Burrows.
that sense, there are a lot of opportunities for US, China,
India and others to cooperate on sea lane security,"
did not foresee the emerging powers challenging the international
system as "China has an interest in growing, developing
don't think they want to, particularly during this period,
challenge the system because they would see that as disrupting
their own rise, and they have a much longer-term perspective,
and they don't see themselves being able to, in any way, challenge
the system," he said.
I would say the same thing with India. We are more cautious,
less sure in terms of Russia, because we see them challenging
the system more," Burrows added.
about the possible emergence of a democratic system in China,
the US expert noted the role of growing middle classes in
"not just in China; also in India, and to an extent,
we see this doing over this next 15, 20 years is, in many
ways, putting pressure on governments and regimes in those
countries" for keeping the material advantages and growth
governments have to be increasingly accountable to those demands
by the middle class," Burrows said. "But we don't
necessarily see democracy, particularly Western-style democracy,
think in many ways that the material, so long as the material
benefits continue to flow in and governments, to the extent
that they are accountable, increase the availability of public
services - the health, education - that they can maintain
at least a semi-authoritarian status," he added.
report also talks about the unprecedented shift in relative
wealth and economic power roughly from west to east, Burrows
see this is the basis for the rise, but we see these countries
as actually having dual identities in 2025.
in very, very large states - India, China - their GDP will
rival practically all countries except the US. However, on
a per capita level, they'll still be relatively poor compared
to the West," he said.
also foresaw "possible interstate rivalries and conflict
over resources. We see a little bit of this already - China,
India developing blue navies, worries about maintaining their
access to energy, rivalries elsewhere in the developing world
so this is another concern. It's a type of conflict we have
not seen for some time," he said.